Participatory Scenario Planning
Kase Wheatley
Background context + Method
Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) is an inclusive approach to developing a spectrum of plausible futures through the visions of local community members. As the process is participatory, the guiding question would be co-shaped by local communities but an example guiding question for PSP focus groups:
“How could changes in land use, climate, and human demand impact water quality, livability, and food systems in the San Joaquin and Salinas watersheds for future generations?”
From this guiding question, the following focus group process is informed. Starting with the viewpoints of the people who are involved, questions like the following area asked:
- Hopes and fears?
- What do they want to preserve? What do they want to change?
- What is resilient, and what is unstable?
Through an iterative co-analysis process, the responses are analyzed to identify:
- What are the clusters of beliefs about how to proceed?
- Where are the lines of fracture among these clusters?
From there, co-analysists iteratively construct a spectrum of scenarios which can be used as conceptual models to explore and communicate trade-offs of different possible socio-economic and ecological landscapes and can even be paired with exercises to create policy pathways. PSP starts with the viewpoints of those whose lives are directly affected by decisions made to and on the landscape.
PSP example process from UW-Madison Yahara 2070 project (time horizon is to 2070):
Current Status + Future Directions
Kase has been in conversation with a number of COAR team members about PSP including Hannah Waterhouse, Vivian Wauters, Ryan Galt, Emily Schlickman, Antonio Roman-Alcalá, Tim Bowles, and Crystele Leauthaud. Some of these conversations are on-going and involve proposals for additional funding. Depending on whether or not more funding is raised, the scale of the PSP process will shift. At the very least, a PSP process will take place in the San Joaquin Valley and Kase hopes to start this process Spring or early Summer 2026.
The hope is to build relationships at the Rural Justice Summit and to work with COAR collaborators to engage their networks in the SJV. The communities to be involved should represent all residents of the valley but will be tailored to highlight the perspectives of those who have been historically marginalized and/or dispossessed. Before engaging in focus groups, the working plan would be to visit with each of the participants, to build trust, and to gather initial perspectives in a one-on-one interview.
Policy-informed
At the very least, this PSP process will engage the Agriculture Land Equity Task Force as well as the Multibenefit Land Repurposing Program (MLRP), CNRA’s 30x30, as well as the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). Including policy makers and participants of these programs in the PSP process is a must.
Educational Outcomes
PSP is a process which could be adapted to the classroom in a variety of ways including in individual modules or as an action-learning process. At the very least, the outcomes of this PSP process will be made available in various curriculum that could be engaged to consider different socio-ecological landscape futures based on our agricultural and policy decisions.
Equity-aligned
The intention of the PSP process is to center those who have been historically marginalized and/or dispossessed in order to support the addressing of historical injustices and current structural inequities. I am excited by the possibility of highlighting a spectrum of plausible futures with aligned policy pathways which showcase the many possible roles that the UC as an institution can play from enabling and supporting change as well as highlighting the ways in which it can continue to be a hindrance.